The Best Buy Company had better-than-expected holiday sales, setting off a gain of $2, or 16.4 percent, in its stock price, to $14.21 a share on Friday. The holiday quarter accounted for about a third of Best Buy’s revenue last year. The chain said that revenue at stores open at least a year fell 1.4 percent for the nine weeks ended Jan. 5. The company’s performance in the United States was flat. The chief executive, Hubert Joly, said in a statement that the result was better than the last several quarters. A Morningstar analyst, R. J. Hottovy, said the results showed that some of Best Buy’s initiatives, like more employee training and online price matching helped increase sales.
Business Briefing | Retailing: Best Buy Shares Rally on Improved Holiday Sales
Label: BusinessExtreme Weather Grows in Frequency and Intensity Around World
Label: World
Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Snow blanketed Jerusalem on Thursday, an example of weather extremes that are growing more frequent and intense. More Photos »
WORCESTER, England — Britons may remember 2012 as the year the weather spun off its rails in a chaotic concoction of drought, deluge and flooding, but the unpredictability of it all turns out to have been all too predictable: Around the world, extreme has become the new commonplace.
Especially lately. China is enduring its coldest winter in nearly 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing — minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and counting — that the traffic lights recently stopped working in the city of Yakutsk.
Bush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. And in the United States, scientists confirmed this week what people could have figured out simply by going outside: last year was the hottest since records began.
“Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”
Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds.
Here in Britain, people are used to thinking of rain as the wallpaper on life’s computer screen — an omnipresent, almost comforting background presence. But even the hardiest citizen was rattled by the near-biblical fierceness of the rains that bucketed down, and the floods that followed, three different times in 2012.
Rescuers plucked people by boat from their swamped homes in St. Asaph, North Wales. Whole areas of the country were cut off when roads and train tracks were inundated at Christmas. In Mevagissey, Cornwall, a pub owner closed his business for good after it flooded 11 times in two months.
It was no anomaly: the floods of 2012 followed the floods of 2007 and also the floods of 2009, which all told have resulted in nearly $6.5 billion in insurance payouts. The Met Office, Britain’s weather service, declared 2012 the wettest year in England, and the second-wettest in Britain as a whole, since records began more than 100 years ago. Four of the five wettest years in the last century have come in the past decade (the fifth was in 1954).
The biggest change, said Charles Powell, a spokesman for the Met Office, is the frequency in Britain of “extreme weather events” — defined as rainfall reaching the top 1 percent of the average amount for that time of year. Fifty years ago, such episodes used to happen every 100 days; now they happen every 70 days, he said.
The same thing is true in Australia, where bush fires are raging across Tasmania and the current heat wave has come after two of the country’s wettest years ever. On Tuesday, Sydney experienced its fifth-hottest day since records began in 1910, with the temperature climbing to 108.1 degrees. The first eight days of 2013 were among the 20 hottest on record.
Every decade since the 1950s has been hotter in Australia than the one before, said Mark Stafford Smith, science director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.
To the north, the extremes have swung the other way, with a band of cold settling across Russia and Northern Europe, bringing thick snow and howling winds to Stockholm, Helsinki and Moscow. (Incongruously, there were also severe snowstorms in Sicily and southern Italy for the first time since World War II; in December, tornadoes and waterspouts struck the Italian coast.)
In Siberia, thousands of people were left without heat when natural gas liquefied in its pipes and water mains burst. Officials canceled bus transportation between cities for fear that roadside breakdowns could lead to deaths from exposure, and motorists were advised not to venture far afield except in columns of two or three cars. In Altai, to the east, traffic officials warned drivers not to use poor-quality diesel, saying that it could become viscous in the cold and clog fuel lines.
Meanwhile, China is enduring its worst winter in recent memory, with frigid temperatures recorded in Harbin, in the northeast. In the western region of Xinjiang, more than 1,000 houses collapsed under a relentless onslaught of snow, while in Inner Mongolia, 180,000 livestock froze to death. The cold has wreaked havoc with crops, sending the price of vegetables soaring.
Way down in South America, energy analysts say that Brazil may face electricity rationing for the first time since 2002, as a heat wave and a lack of rain deplete the reservoirs for hydroelectric plants. The summer has been punishingly hot. The temperature in Rio de Janeiro climbed to 109.8 degrees on Dec. 26, the city’s highest temperature since official records began in 1915.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: January 11, 2013
An earlier version of this article misstated part of the name of the organization for which Omar Baddour works. It is the World Meteorological Organization, not the World Meteorological Association. It also misspelled the name of a location in Cornwall, England. It is Mevagissey, not Megavissey.
Gadgetwise Blog: Q&A: Dealing With Duplicate Work on Dropbox
Label: TechnologyWhat happens if two people work on the same file at the same time in a shared Dropbox folder? Does one copy of the file overwrite the other?
If two people are editing the same file at the same time, Dropbox saves both versions of the file in the shared folder. The service does not merge the two different files, but adds the words “conflicted copy” to the file name of the second version so it is obvious that two different copies of the same file now exist.
The file name of the second copy also lists the date that the conflict occurred between the two versions of the file. The computer name or name of the person who was working on the file is appended to the name as well, making it somewhat easier to identify the collaborator and ensure that everyone’s changes are incorporated into one final version of the document.
The New Old Age Blog: Taking a Zen Approach to Caregiving
Label: LifestyleYou try to help your elderly father. Irritated and defensive, he snaps at you instead of going along with your suggestion. And you think “this is so unfair” and feel a rising tide of anger.
How to handle situations like this, which arise often and create so much angst for caregivers?
Jennifer Block finds the answer in what she calls “contemplative caregiving” — the application of Buddhist principles to caregiving and the subject of a year-long course that starts at the San Francisco Zen Center in a few weeks.
This approach aims to cultivate compassion, both for older people and the people they depend on, said Ms. Block, 49, a Buddhist chaplain and the course’s lead instructor. She’s also the former director of education at the Zen Hospice project in San Francisco and founder of the Beyond Measure School for Contemplative Care, which is helping develop a new, Zen-inspired senior living community in the area.
I caught up with Ms. Block recently, and what follows is an edited transcript of our conversation.
Let’s start with your experience. Have you been a caregiver?
My experience in caregiving is as a professional providing spiritual care to individuals and families when they are facing and coping with aging and sickness and loss and dying, particularly in hospital and hospice settings.
What kinds of challenges have you witnessed?
People are for the most part unprepared for caregiving. They’re either untrained or unable to trust their own instincts. They lack confidence as well as knowledge. By confidence, I mean understanding and accepting that we don’t know all the answers – what to do, how to fix things.
This past weekend, I was on the phone with a woman who’d brought her mom to live near her in assisted living. The mom had been to the hospital the day before. My conversation with the daughter was about helping her see the truth that her mother needed more care and that was going to change the daughter’s responsibilities and her life. And also, her mother was frail, elderly, and coming nearer to death.
That’s hard, isn’t it?
Yes, because we live in a death-denying society. Also, we live in a fast-paced, demanding world that says don’t sit still — do something. But people receiving care often need most of all for us to spend time with them. When we do that, their mortality and our grief and our helplessness becomes closer to us and more apparent.
How can contemplative caregiving help?
We teach people to cultivate a relationship with aging, sickness and dying. To turn toward it rather than turning away, and to pay close attention. Most people don’t want to do this.
A person needs training to face what is difficult in oneself and in others. There are spiritual muscles we need to develop, just like we develop physical muscles in a gym. Also, the mind needs to be trained to be responsive instead of reactive.
What does that mean?
Here’s an example. Let’s say you’re trying to help your mother, and she says something off-putting to you like “you’ve always been terrible at keeping house. It’s no wonder you lost my pajamas.”
The first thing is to notice your experience. To become aware of that feeling, almost like being slapped emotionally. To notice your chest tightening.
Then I tell people to take a deep breath. And say something to themselves like “soften” to address that tightness. That’s how you can stay facing something uncomfortable rather than turning away.
If I were in this position, I might say something to myself like “hello unhappiness” or “hello suffering” or “hello aging” to tether myself.
The second step would be curiosity about that experience. Like, wow, where do I feel that anger that rose up in me, or that fear? Oh, it’s in my chest. I’m going to feel that, stay with it, investigate it.
Why is that important?
Because as we investigate something we come to understand it. And, paradoxically, when we pay attention to pain it changes. It softens. It moves. It lessens. It deepens. And we get to know it and learn not to be afraid of it or change it or fix it but just come alongside of it.
Over hours, days, months, years, the mind and heart come to know pain. And the response to pain is compassion — the wish for the alleviation of pain.
Let’s go back to what mother said about your housekeeping and the pajamas. Maybe you leave the room for five minutes so you can pay attention to your reaction and remember your training. Then, you can go back in and have a response rather than a reaction. Maybe something like “Mom, I think you’re right. I may not be the world’s best housekeeper. I’m sorry I lost your pajamas. It seems like you’re having a pretty strong response to that, and I’d like to know why it matters so much to you. What’s happening with you today?”
Are other skills important?
Another skill is to become aware of how much we receive as well as give in caregiving. Caregiving can be really gratifying. It’s an expression of our values and identity: the way we want the world to be. So, I try to teach people how this role benefits them. Such as learning what it’s like to be old. Or having a close, intimate relationship with an older parent for the first time in decades. It isn’t necessarily pleasant or easy. But the alternative is missing someone’s final chapter, and that can be a real loss.
What will you do in your course?
We’ll teach the principles of contemplative care and discuss them. We’ll have homework, such as ‘Bring me three examples of someone you were caring for who was caring toward you in return.’ That’s one way of practicing attention. And people will train in meditation.
We’ll also explore our own relationship to aging, sickness, dying and loss. We’ll tell our stories: this is the situation I was in, this is where I felt myself shut down, this was the edge of my comfort or knowledge. And we’ll teach principles from Buddhism. Equanimity. Compassion. Deep inner connectedness.
What can people do on their own?
Mindfulness training is offered in almost every city. That’s one of the core components of this approach.
I think every caregiver needs to have their own caregiver — a therapist or a colleague or a friend, someone who is there for them and with whom they can unburden themselves. I think of caregiving as drawing water from a well. We need to make sure that we have whatever nurtures us, whatever supplies that well. And often, that’s connecting with others.
Are other groups doing this kind of work?
In New York City, the New York Zen Center for Contemplative Care educates the public and professionals about contemplative care. And in New Mexico, the Upaya Zen Center does similar work, much of it centered around death and dying.
People who want to read about this might want to look at a new book of essays, “The Arts of Contemplative Care: Pioneering Voices in Buddhist Chaplaincy and Pastoral Work” (Wisdom Publications, 2012).
The New Old Age Blog: Taking a Zen Approach to Caregiving
Label: HealthYou try to help your elderly father. Irritated and defensive, he snaps at you instead of going along with your suggestion. And you think “this is so unfair” and feel a rising tide of anger.
How to handle situations like this, which arise often and create so much angst for caregivers?
Jennifer Block finds the answer in what she calls “contemplative caregiving” — the application of Buddhist principles to caregiving and the subject of a year-long course that starts at the San Francisco Zen Center in a few weeks.
This approach aims to cultivate compassion, both for older people and the people they depend on, said Ms. Block, 49, a Buddhist chaplain and the course’s lead instructor. She’s also the former director of education at the Zen Hospice project in San Francisco and founder of the Beyond Measure School for Contemplative Care, which is helping develop a new, Zen-inspired senior living community in the area.
I caught up with Ms. Block recently, and what follows is an edited transcript of our conversation.
Let’s start with your experience. Have you been a caregiver?
My experience in caregiving is as a professional providing spiritual care to individuals and families when they are facing and coping with aging and sickness and loss and dying, particularly in hospital and hospice settings.
What kinds of challenges have you witnessed?
People are for the most part unprepared for caregiving. They’re either untrained or unable to trust their own instincts. They lack confidence as well as knowledge. By confidence, I mean understanding and accepting that we don’t know all the answers – what to do, how to fix things.
This past weekend, I was on the phone with a woman who’d brought her mom to live near her in assisted living. The mom had been to the hospital the day before. My conversation with the daughter was about helping her see the truth that her mother needed more care and that was going to change the daughter’s responsibilities and her life. And also, her mother was frail, elderly, and coming nearer to death.
That’s hard, isn’t it?
Yes, because we live in a death-denying society. Also, we live in a fast-paced, demanding world that says don’t sit still — do something. But people receiving care often need most of all for us to spend time with them. When we do that, their mortality and our grief and our helplessness becomes closer to us and more apparent.
How can contemplative caregiving help?
We teach people to cultivate a relationship with aging, sickness and dying. To turn toward it rather than turning away, and to pay close attention. Most people don’t want to do this.
A person needs training to face what is difficult in oneself and in others. There are spiritual muscles we need to develop, just like we develop physical muscles in a gym. Also, the mind needs to be trained to be responsive instead of reactive.
What does that mean?
Here’s an example. Let’s say you’re trying to help your mother, and she says something off-putting to you like “you’ve always been terrible at keeping house. It’s no wonder you lost my pajamas.”
The first thing is to notice your experience. To become aware of that feeling, almost like being slapped emotionally. To notice your chest tightening.
Then I tell people to take a deep breath. And say something to themselves like “soften” to address that tightness. That’s how you can stay facing something uncomfortable rather than turning away.
If I were in this position, I might say something to myself like “hello unhappiness” or “hello suffering” or “hello aging” to tether myself.
The second step would be curiosity about that experience. Like, wow, where do I feel that anger that rose up in me, or that fear? Oh, it’s in my chest. I’m going to feel that, stay with it, investigate it.
Why is that important?
Because as we investigate something we come to understand it. And, paradoxically, when we pay attention to pain it changes. It softens. It moves. It lessens. It deepens. And we get to know it and learn not to be afraid of it or change it or fix it but just come alongside of it.
Over hours, days, months, years, the mind and heart come to know pain. And the response to pain is compassion — the wish for the alleviation of pain.
Let’s go back to what mother said about your housekeeping and the pajamas. Maybe you leave the room for five minutes so you can pay attention to your reaction and remember your training. Then, you can go back in and have a response rather than a reaction. Maybe something like “Mom, I think you’re right. I may not be the world’s best housekeeper. I’m sorry I lost your pajamas. It seems like you’re having a pretty strong response to that, and I’d like to know why it matters so much to you. What’s happening with you today?”
Are other skills important?
Another skill is to become aware of how much we receive as well as give in caregiving. Caregiving can be really gratifying. It’s an expression of our values and identity: the way we want the world to be. So, I try to teach people how this role benefits them. Such as learning what it’s like to be old. Or having a close, intimate relationship with an older parent for the first time in decades. It isn’t necessarily pleasant or easy. But the alternative is missing someone’s final chapter, and that can be a real loss.
What will you do in your course?
We’ll teach the principles of contemplative care and discuss them. We’ll have homework, such as ‘Bring me three examples of someone you were caring for who was caring toward you in return.’ That’s one way of practicing attention. And people will train in meditation.
We’ll also explore our own relationship to aging, sickness, dying and loss. We’ll tell our stories: this is the situation I was in, this is where I felt myself shut down, this was the edge of my comfort or knowledge. And we’ll teach principles from Buddhism. Equanimity. Compassion. Deep inner connectedness.
What can people do on their own?
Mindfulness training is offered in almost every city. That’s one of the core components of this approach.
I think every caregiver needs to have their own caregiver — a therapist or a colleague or a friend, someone who is there for them and with whom they can unburden themselves. I think of caregiving as drawing water from a well. We need to make sure that we have whatever nurtures us, whatever supplies that well. And often, that’s connecting with others.
Are other groups doing this kind of work?
In New York City, the New York Zen Center for Contemplative Care educates the public and professionals about contemplative care. And in New Mexico, the Upaya Zen Center does similar work, much of it centered around death and dying.
People who want to read about this might want to look at a new book of essays, “The Arts of Contemplative Care: Pioneering Voices in Buddhist Chaplaincy and Pastoral Work” (Wisdom Publications, 2012).
DealBook: Client Redemptions Loom for SAC Capital
Label: Business12:46 p.m. | Updated
The hedge fund giant SAC Capital Advisors is steeling itself for a possible wave of withdrawal requests from clients amid the government’s intensifying scrutiny of its trading practices.
Investors have about a month to decide whether to pull out money from SAC, the $14 billion fund owned by the billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen.
While posting one of the best investment track records on Wall Street across two decades, SAC has attracted billions of dollars from pension funds, wealthy families and other money management firms. But since late November, when federal prosecutors brought its latest criminal insider trading charge against a former SAC employee — a case that it calls the most lucrative insider trading scheme ever uncovered — those clients are weighing whether continuing their relationship with the fund is worth the reputational risk.
The fund has a standard quarterly redemption deadline, and the next one will fall on Feb. 15. Already, several of SAC’s clients, including Lyxor Asset Management and Titan Advisors, have notified the fund that they intend to withdraw their money. Others, like Skybridge Capital, have told SAC they will continue to invest with the fund.
Questions remain about the intentions of several of SAC’s well-known clients, including Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest and most influential allocators to hedge funds. Blackstone has about $550 million invested in SAC, making it one of the fund’s largest outside investors. A Blackstone spokesman declined to comment.
The fund has told its employees that it could face at least $1 billion of withdrawals, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal on Friday. A spokesman for SAC said it was “far too early to speculate about redemptions, and we do not expect redemptions to have a significant impact on our funds.”
Any withdrawals from clients would come after a year of decent performance for SAC. In 2012 the firm returned about 13 percent net of fees, which while slightly underperforming the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock market index, is superior to the results of the average hedge fund.
While a spate of redemptions can have a crippling effect on a hedge fund by forcing it to sell its holdings at unfavorable prices, SAC is more insulated than most of its competitors from the ill effects of client withdrawals. That is because of the $14 billion that SAC manages, only about 40 percent of that comes from outside clients. The rest — a fortune of about $8 billion — belongs to Mr. Cohen and his employees.
Also, SAC has protected itself with a stringent redemption policy. The fund’s clients can redeem only 25 percent of their investment each quarter. So, for example, if a client has $200 million invested with SAC, and asks for its money back by the Feb. 15 deadline, SAC would return $50 million every three months beginning in March. That way, SAC is protected from having a forced liquidation of its investment portfolio.
Still, an investor exodus can have a crippling effect on a hedge fund, often causing it to shut down. Last month, Diamondback Capital Management, another hedge fund that became ensnared in the government’s insider trading investigation, closed after its investors sought to pull out roughly one-quarter of the fund’s assets.
Diamondback’s management decided that the most prudent course of action was to wind down rather than reorganize the firm to manage the reduced amount of money.
Like Diamondback, SAC has become embroiled in the government’s broad crackdown on insider trading at hedge funds. At least seven former SAC traders and analysts have been tied to illegal trading while at the fund. And the Securities and Exchange Commission has warned SAC that it might filed a civil action against the fund for failing to properly supervise its employees.
Mr. Cohen has told his employees that he believes he and his fund have at all times acted appropriately, and that the fund has fully cooperated with the government’s investigation.
In recent weeks, SAC has gone on a charm offensive in an attempt to hold on to clients. The fund has told its investors that they would not be responsible for any penalties incurred as a result of any of the government’s legal inquiry. Instead, SAC has told them, Mr. Cohen and his management company would pick up the costs.
There have also been changes at the fund. SAC last week told its staff that it was closing its office in Chicago, which is home to about a dozen employees. Such a move is not unusual, as the fund has closed offices before, such as San Francisco, where it saw limited opportunities.
A spokesman said it didn’t make sense to have an office in Chicago. SAC has more than 1,000 employees – portfolio managers, analysts, traders, and support staff – in five offices across the globe, with its headquarters in Stamford, Conn.
Though Mr. Cohen has told his friends and employees that he remains committed to managing money for outside clients, he could decide to follow in the footsteps of several fellow billionaire hedge fund managers.
A number of star investors, having already amassed billions in personal wealth, have decided to get out of the business of managing other people’s money. In recent years, for example, both George Soros and his onetime protégé, Stanley Druckenmiller, returned money to clients and set up so-called family offices to manage their own fortunes.
Would-Be Inauguration in Venezuela for Chávez
Label: WorldThe People’s Love for Chávez Continues:
While Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez lies ill in Cuba, his many fans still flock to the streets at home in support. A recent rally shows Mr. Chávez has established a celebrated and enduring persona.
CARACAS, Venezuela — President Hugo Chávez’s supporters have not ruled out swearing him in from his hospital in Havana. His detractors are calling for government investigators to go check his pulse themselves. The justices whom Mr. Chávez’s allies have named to the Supreme Court have decided that he can continue to govern in absentia.
In a country that Mr. Chávez has dominated for so long, his health crisis and the decision to proceed on Thursday with a quasi-presidential inauguration that he is unable to attend are producing a stream of bizarre developments and national angst about who is in charge.
“Who’s governing Venezuela?” Julio Borges, an opposition member of the National Assembly, said during a noisy legislative debate this week on the biggest issue facing the country, overshadowing other urgent matters like pressures for a painful currency devaluation, stagnant oil production and chronic shortages of food and other staples on store shelves.
Mr. Chávez has long said, “I am the people,” a mantra that his supporters are invoking as they plan to don the sash the president would have worn had he been able to attend his inauguration, symbolically becoming presidents themselves.
“Anyone who has a sash, bring it along, because tomorrow the people will be invested as president of the republic, because the people are Chávez,” Diosdado Cabello, the president of the National Assembly, said Wednesday. “All of us here are Chávez, the people in the street are Chávez, the lady who cooks is Chávez, the comrade who works as a watchman is Chávez, the soldier is Chávez, the woman is Chávez, the farmer is Chávez, the worker is Chávez; we’re all Chávez.”
To no one’s surprise, the Supreme Court, full of Chávez loyalists, ruled on the eve of the ceremony that Mr. Chávez’s inauguration could be postponed and that his team of advisers could smoothly move, in his absence, from one term to the next.
The court declined to set a time limit for the swearing in, raising the possibility that the country’s deepening uncertainty could go on for weeks or months. And it did nothing to clear up the stubborn mystery of the president’s condition.
Luisa Estella Morales, the president of the Supreme Court, said Wednesday at a news conference that there was no need at this time for a delegation to go to Cuba and report back on the condition of Mr. Chávez, 58. Asked if the swearing in could occur in Havana, she said the time and place of the ceremony had not been determined.
Ms. Morales said the Supreme Court’s ruling was meant to uphold the results of October’s presidential election.
“It’s one of the most important values that we should preserve as a constitutional court,” Ms. Morales said. “The sovereign Venezuelan people have expressed through their vote their desire to continue being governed by President Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías.”
The government has been opaque for months, acknowledging that he suffered from a relapse of cancer in the pelvic area, but not specifying the type of cancer or detailing his prognosis.
The lack of information has left Venezuela tied in knots. Mr. Chávez has loomed so large for so long — with speeches that have lasted for hours, frequent Twitter posts and his outsized singing, ranting, poetry-reciting and foe-bashing personality — that his sudden silence has created a sizable vacuum.
“We don’t have a president,” lamented Estela Martínez, 63, a nurse who has supported Mr. Chávez throughout his 14 years in office. She said she was afraid that the public was not getting the full truth about the president’s condition and that there was far more shouting than clarity from political leaders. “Someone has to take the reins of the country.”
Henrique Capriles Radonski, the opposition candidate who lost to Mr. Chávez in October, criticized the Supreme Court’s decision endorsing a delay in the inauguration. “Institutions should not respond to the interests of a government,” he said.
The State Department in Washington, which has been cautious about getting involved in the contentious political back-and-forth, said Wednesday that it would be eager to improve relations with Venezuela, which have long been strained.
Bits Blog: Do People Actually Shop on Phones? The Answer Is Decidedly Yes
Label: TechnologyIn e-commerce, the mobile revolution is here.
In 2012, people spent $25 billion on purchases made from phones and tablets, an increase of 81 percent from the year before, according to eMarketer, which compiles data from 120 sources that track commerce.
That is still a minority of total e-commerce sales. Mobile accounted for just 11 percent of e-commerce and is expected to reach 15 percent this year. But eMarketer predicts that by 2016, mobile will be $87 billion, or a quarter of all e-commerce.
The shift is significant for a type of shopping riddled with challenges — like small screens that make it hard to view items and type. It reflects the consumers’ shift to doing everything from work to play on mobile devices.
“Particularly in the second half of the year and in the holiday season, there were signs that smartphones and tablets in particular had made much more progress than people had previously thought we would,” said Clark Fredricksen, vice president of communications at eMarketer.
And mobile shoppers spend a surprising amount when using these devices — an average of $329 per order when on tablets and $250 when on phones, eMarketer said.
Tablets in particular have significantly changed the way people shop. While in 2011, people spent more money making purchases from smartphones than from tablets, shopping on tablets surpassed phones last year: $13.9 billion was spent from tablets and $9.9 billion from phones.
People are more likely to use tablets while they are in a shopping mood, like lounging on the couch. And their bigger screens make shopping easier than it is on smartphones and in some cases easier than on computers, because shoppers can zoom in or drag items to their carts with their fingers.
For example, at Tea Collection, a children’s clothing retailer, just over a third of transactions now come from mobile devices. People are just as likely to buy from tablets as from computers, and some days more likely, but the conversion rate is lower on smartphones.
Leigh Rawdon, chief executive and co-founder of Tea Collection, said she was surprised at how quickly people have taken to shopping on mobile devices, and that she expects behavior to change yet again with the proliferation of smaller tablets like the iPad Mini that blur the line between phone and tablet.
Still, some retailers report that mobile commerce has not been as big as they expected.
“Many mobile storefronts have problems that make buying difficult,” Mr. Fredricksen said. “Even though sessions often start on smartphones, in the end consumers end up turning to computers or retail stores or even a tablet to seal the deal.”
Big e-commerce players that have poured resources into mobile shopping, like Amazon.com and eBay, are seeing significantly more mobile commerce than smaller shopping sites, Mr. Fredricksen said.
During the holidays, overall e-commerce sales on computers and mobile devices combined grew 14 percent to $42.3 billion, according to comScore. That was lower than expected. After a strong start around Thanksgiving, consumer spending shrank because of concerns about the fiscal crisis in Washington, comScore said.
Flu Widespread, Leading a Range of Winter’s Ills
Label: Lifestyle
It is not your imagination — more people you know are sick this winter, even people who have had flu shots.
The country is in the grip of three emerging flu or flulike epidemics: an early start to the annual flu season with an unusually aggressive virus, a surge in a new type of norovirus, and the worst whooping cough outbreak in 60 years. And these are all developing amid the normal winter highs for the many viruses that cause symptoms on the “colds and flu” spectrum.
Influenza is widespread, and causing local crises. On Wednesday, Boston’s mayor declared a public health emergency as cases flooded hospital emergency rooms.
Google’s national flu trend maps, which track flu-related searches, are almost solid red (for “intense activity”) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly FluView maps, which track confirmed cases, are nearly solid brown (for “widespread activity”).
“Yesterday, I saw a construction worker, a big strong guy in his Carhartts who looked like he could fall off a roof without noticing it,” said Dr. Beth Zeeman, an emergency room doctor for MetroWest Medical Center in Framingham, Mass., just outside Boston. “He was in a fetal position with fever and chills, like a wet rag. When I see one of those cases, I just tighten up my mask a little.”
Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston started asking visitors with even mild cold symptoms to wear masks and to avoid maternity wards. The hospital has treated 532 confirmed influenza patients this season and admitted 167, even more than it did by this date during the 2009-10 swine flu pandemic.
At Brigham and Women’s Hospital, 100 patients were crowded into spaces licensed for 53. Beds lined halls and pressed against vending machines. Overflow patients sat on benches in the lobby wearing surgical masks.
“Today was the first time I think I was experiencing my first pandemic,” said Heidi Crim, the nursing director, who saw both the swine flu and SARS outbreaks here. Adding to the problem, she said, many staff members were at home sick and supplies like flu test swabs were running out.
Nationally, deaths and hospitalizations are still below epidemic thresholds. But experts do not expect that to remain true. Pneumonia usually shows up in national statistics only a week or two after emergency rooms report surges in cases, and deaths start rising a week or two after that, said Dr. Gregory A. Poland, a vaccine specialist at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. The predominant flu strain circulating is an H3N2, which typically kills more people than the H1N1 strains that usually predominate; the relatively lethal 2003-4 “Fujian flu” season was overwhelmingly H3N2.
No cases have been resistant to Tamiflu, which can ease symptoms if taken within 48 hours, and this year’s flu shot is well-matched to the H3N2 strain, the C.D.C. said. Flu shots are imperfect, especially in the elderly, whose immune systems may not be strong enough to produce enough antibodies.
Simultaneously, the country is seeing a large and early outbreak of norovirus, the “cruise ship flu” or “stomach flu,” said Dr. Aron J. Hall of the C.D.C.’s viral gastroenterology branch. It includes a new strain, which first appeared in Australia and is known as the Sydney 2012 variant.
This week, Maine’s health department said that state was seeing a large spike in cases. Cities across Canada reported norovirus outbreaks so serious that hospitals were shutting down whole wards for disinfection because patients were getting infected after moving into the rooms of those who had just recovered. The classic symptoms of norovirus are “explosive” diarrhea and “projectile” vomiting, which can send infectious particles flying yards away.
“I also saw a woman I’m sure had norovirus,” Dr. Zeeman said. “She said she’d gone to the bathroom 14 times at home and 4 times since she came into the E.R. You can get dehydrated really quickly that way.”
This month, the C.D.C. said the United States was having its biggest outbreak of pertussis in 60 years; there were about 42,000 confirmed cases, the highest total since 1955. The disease is unrelated to flu but causes a hacking, constant cough and breathlessness. While it is unpleasant, adults almost always survive; the greatest danger is to infants, especially premature ones with undeveloped lungs. Of the 18 recorded deaths in 2012, all but three were of infants under age 1.
That outbreak is worst in cold-weather states, including Colorado, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Vermont.
Although most children are vaccinated several times against pertussis, those shots wear off with age. It is possible, the authorities said, that a new, safer vaccine introduced in the 1990s gives protection that does not last as long, so more teenagers and adults are vulnerable.
And, Dr. Poland said, if many New Yorkers are catching laryngitis, as has been reported, it is probably a rhinovirus. “It’s typically a sore, really scratchy throat, and you sometimes lose your voice,” he said.
Though flu cases in New York City are rising rapidly, the city health department has no plans to declare an emergency, largely because of concern that doing so would drive mildly sick people to emergency rooms, said Dr. Jay K. Varma, deputy director for disease control. The city would prefer people went to private doctors or, if still healthy, to pharmacies for flu shots. Nursing homes have had worrisome outbreaks, he said, and nine elderly patients have died. Homes need to be more alert, vaccinate patients, separate those who fall ill and treat them faster with antivirals, he said.
Dr. Susan I. Gerber of the C.D.C.’s respiratory diseases branch, said her agency has not seen any unusual spike of rhinovirus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, coronavirus or the dozens of other causes of the “common cold,” but the country is having its typical winter surge of some, like respiratory syncytial virus “that can mimic flulike symptoms, especially in young children.”
The C.D.C. and the local health authorities continue to advocate getting flu shots. Although it takes up to two weeks to build immunity, “we don’t know if the season has peaked yet,” said Dr. Joseph Bresee, chief of prevention in the agency’s flu division.
Flu shots and nasal mists contain vaccines against three strains, the H3N2, the H1N1 and a B. Thus far this season, Dr. Bresee said, H1N1 cases have been rare, and the H3N2 component has been a good match against almost all the confirmed H3N2 samples the agency has tested.
About a fifth of all flus this year thus far are from B strains. That part of the vaccine is a good match only 70 percent of the time, because two B’s are circulating.
For that reason, he said, flu shots are being reformulated. Within two years, they said, most will contain vaccines against both B strains.
Joanna Constantine, 28, a stylist at the Guy Thomas Hair Salon on West 56th Street in Manhattan, said she recently was so sick that she was off work and in bed for five days — and silenced by laryngitis for four of them.
She did not have the classic flu symptoms — a high fever, aches and chills — so she knew it was probably something else.
Still, she said, it scared her enough that she will get a flu shot next year. She had not bothered to get one since her last pregnancy, she said. But she has a 7-year-old son and a 5-year-old daughter, “and my little guys get theirs every year.”
F.D.A. Requires Cuts to Dosages of Ambien and Other Sleep Drugs
Label: Health
The Food and Drug Administration announced on Thursday that it was requiring manufacturers of popular sleeping pills like Ambien and Zolpimist to cut their recommended dosage in half for women, after laboratory studies showed that they can leave people still sleepy in the morning and at risk for accidents.
The agency issued the requirement for drugs containing the active ingredient zolpidem, by far the most widely used sleep aid. Using lower doses means less of the drug will remain in the blood in the morning hours, and leave people who take it less exposed to the risk of impairment while driving to work.
Women eliminate zolpidem from their bodies more slowly than men and the agency told manufacturers that the recommended dosage for women should be lowered to 5 milligrams from 10 milligrams for immediate-release products like Ambien, Edluar and Zolpimist. Dosages for extended-release products should be lowered to 6.25 milligrams from 12.5, the agency said. The agency also recommended lowering dosages for men.
An estimated 10 to 15 percent of women will have a level of zolpidem in their blood that impairs driving eight hours after taking the pill, while only about 3 percent of men do, said Dr. Robert Temple, deputy director for clinical science in the F.D.A.'s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.
Doctors will still be told that they can prescribe the higher dosage if the lower one does not work, Dr. Temple said.
“Most people thought that by the morning it is gone,” he said. “What we’re reminding people is that is sort of true, but that in some women who take a full 10 milligram dose, and in a lot of people who take the control release dose, it is not entirely true. Some people will be impaired in the morning.”
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